DOI: 10.1002/grl.50172
论文题名: Detection of tropical cyclone track changes from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
作者: Tsai H.-C. ; Elsberry R.L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9309
EISSN: 1944-9040
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 4 起始页码: 797
结束页码: 801
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ECMWF Ensemble prediction system
; THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
; Tropical cyclone track forecast
Scopus关键词: Cluster analysis
; Weather forecasting
; Deterministic models
; Ensemble forecasts
; Ensemble prediction systems
; European center for medium-range weather forecasts
; Forecast uncertainty
; Reliability demonstration
; THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
; Tropical cyclone
; Hurricanes
; accuracy assessment
; cluster analysis
; reliability analysis
; storm track
; tracking
; tropical cyclone
; uncertainty analysis
; weather forecasting
; Europe
英文摘要: A cluster analysis of the 51 member European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ensemble forecast tracks of existing tropical storms from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble archive is utilized to detect multiple track solutions, and weighted-mean vector motion (WMVM) tracks are calculated for the ensemble tracks and for the individual track clusters. When three track clusters were present, larger errors occurred in the corresponding deterministic model forecast. Reliability of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ensemble forecast tracks when two distinct clusters exist is examined in terms of the hit rates when the cluster with the larger number of members is selected. A larger hit rate is achieved if track clusters with at least 70%, 80%, or 90% of the members are selected. In these situations, the forecaster can select the WMVM tracks for those clusters and have confidence that a more accurate track than the overall WMVM track will generally be predicted. Key Points TC track change detected in cluster analysis of ECMWF ensemble Reliability demonstration for track forecast uncertainty Forecaster guidance for selection of most accurate track option ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84878192808&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50172&partnerID=40&md5=cb8277ae920af722ab3266923719a2c3
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6573
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Graduate School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, 589 Dyer Rd., Monterey, CA 93943, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tsai H.-C.,Elsberry R.L.. Detection of tropical cyclone track changes from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(4).