globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50132
论文题名:
Historical changes in Australian temperature extremes as inferred from extreme value distribution analysis
作者: Wang X.L.; Trewin B.; Feng Y.; Jones D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9318
EISSN: 1944-9049
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期:3
起始页码: 573
结束页码: 578
语种: 英语
英文关键词: generalized extreme value distribution ; generalized Pareto distribution ; historical changes in temperature extremes ; surface sir temperature extremes
Scopus关键词: Wind effects ; Extreme temperatures ; Extreme value distributions ; Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions ; Generalized extreme value distribution ; Generalized Pareto Distributions ; Maximum temperature ; Minimum temperatures ; Temperature extremes ; Forestry ; air temperature ; data set ; diurnal variation ; high temperature ; historical record ; nineteenth century ; spatiotemporal analysis ; temporal period ; Algorithms ; Australia ; Mathematical Analysis ; Seasonal Variation ; Temperature ; Australia
英文摘要: This study develops a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis approach, namely, a GEV tree approach that allows for both stationary and nonstationary cases. This approach is applied to a century-long homogenized daily temperature data set for Australia to assess changes in temperature extremes from 1910 to 2010. Changes in 20 year return values are estimated from the most suitable GEV distribution chosen from a GEV tree. Twenty year return values of extreme low minimum temperature are found to have warmed strongly over the century in most parts of the continent. There is also a tendency toward warming of extreme high maximum temperatures, but it is weaker than that for minimum temperatures, with the majority of stations not showing significant trends. The observed changes in extreme temperatures are broadly consistent with observed changes in mean temperatures and in the frequency of temperatures above the ninetieth and below the tenth percentile (i.e., extreme indices). The GEV tree analysis provides insight into behavior of extremes with re-occurrence times of several years to decades that are of importance to engineering design/applications, while extreme indices represent moderately extreme events with re-occurrence times of a year or shorter. Key Points Strong warming in Australian extreme low temperatures over the period 1910-2010 Warming in Australian extreme high temperatures over 1910-2010 relatively weak Changes in extremes broadly consistent with changes in relevant seasonal means ©2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84878165296&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50132&partnerID=40&md5=201cbf85ee6de1b8a0cd9c66fd625d63
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6582
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作者单位: Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Wang X.L.,Trewin B.,Feng Y.,et al. Historical changes in Australian temperature extremes as inferred from extreme value distribution analysis[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(3).
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