DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2013.03.032
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84877058662
论文题名: Low relative growth rates predict future mortality of common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)
作者: Gillner S. ; Rüger N. ; Roloff A. ; Berger U.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 302 起始页码: 372
结束页码: 378
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Common beech
; Crown decline
; Dendrochronology
; Mortality predictions
; Vitality assessment
Scopus关键词: Common beech
; Crown decline
; Dendrochronology
; Growth characteristic
; Logistic regression models
; Relative growth rate
; Statistical characteristics
; Vitality assessment
; Autocorrelation
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Logistics
; Regression analysis
; Time series
; Forestry
; autocorrelation
; deciduous forest
; dendrochronology
; forest ecosystem
; future prospect
; growth rate
; mortality
; nature reserve
; old-growth forest
; time series
; tree ring
; Fagus
; Forecasts
; Forestry
; Materials Handling
; Meteorology
; Regression Analysis
; Transport
; Germany
; Fagus
; Fagus sylvatica
英文摘要: For many tree species, growth patterns derived from tree-ring time series have been shown to be good indicators of tree mortality. Although tree rings of common beech (Fagus sylvatica) have been widely used to answer complex questions of forest ecology, there are only few studies using growth characteristics, such as growth decline or growth variability, as informative predictors of tree mortality in old-growth beech forests. To do this, we used dendrochronological data of living and dead trees from a nature reserve in eastern Germany. Using a logistic regression model, we predicted tree mortality based on growth characteristics (basal area increment; variance, autocorrelation, mean sensitivity of ring widths; growth trends) over different time horizons. Beech mortality could reliably be predicted up to 20years in advance on the basis of relative basal area growth. Trees that grew slower in relative basal area than 0.95cm2/cmy on average over a 20-year-period had a much higher mortality risk than faster-growing trees. Other statistical characteristics of the dendrochronological time series, such as the variance or autocorrelation of ring widths, the mean sensitivity or growth trends, did not convey significant additional information and did not lead to better mortality predictions. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66571
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Institute of Forest Botany and Forest Zoology, TU Dresden, Pienner Str. 7, 01737 Tharandt, Germany; Department of Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, University of Leipzig, Johannisallee 21-23, 04103 Leipzig, Germany; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Apartado 0843-03092, Balboa, Ancón, Panama; Institute of Forest Growth and Forest Computer Sciences, TU Dresden, Pienner Str. 7, 01737 Tharandt, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Gillner S.,Rüger N.,Roloff A.,et al. Low relative growth rates predict future mortality of common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,302