DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.12.024
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874365447
论文题名: Climatic niche, ecological genetics, and impact of climate change on eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.): Guidelines for land managers
作者: Joyce D.G. ; Rehfeldt G.E.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 295 起始页码: 173
结束页码: 192
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bioclimate models
; Climate response models
; Climatic niche
; Ecological genetics
; Seed transfer guidelines
; Seed zones
Scopus关键词: Bioclimate
; Climate response
; Climatic niche
; Ecological genetics
; Seed transfer
; Seed zones
; Climate change
; Decision trees
; Ecosystems
; Errors
; Forecasting
; Forestry
; Genes
; Phenols
; Population distribution
; Population statistics
; Probability distributions
; Regression analysis
; Climate models
; adaptation
; bioclimatology
; climate change
; climate effect
; coniferous forest
; conservation management
; error analysis
; forest inventory
; genetic variation
; growth rate
; guideline
; interpopulation variation
; land management
; phenology
; prediction
; vegetation classification
; Decision Making
; Ecosystems
; Errors
; Forecasts
; Forestry
; Genes
; Phenols
; Regression Analysis
; Trees
; Great Lakes [North America]
; Lake Ontario
英文摘要: Approximately, 123,500 forest inventory and ecological ground plots representing eastern North America were used to predict the contemporary distribution of eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.) from climate. The random forests classification tree procedures produced an 8-variable algorithm that had an 8% overall error rate. Erroneous predictions of presence, or errors of commission, were 13%, while falsely predicting absence, or errors of omission were 1%. Climate-based multiple regression models were developed to describe patterns of genetic variation among 112 populations representing the range of P. strobus in Ontario, Canada east of Lake Superior. Degree days >5°C was the best predictor of variation in phenology and growth potential, with 5-year height providing the greatest resolution of inter-population variation (R2=0.68). Cold hardiness in the fall was most closely associated with mean minimum temperature (R2=0.26). Height growth data from four disparate provenance test series that together included a total of 354 provenances corroborated the range-wide applicability of the regional genetic models. Although variation in growth potential in the central Appalachian Mountains was most closely associated with mean minimum temperature, degree days >5°C remained the best predictor of range-wide variation in growth potential (R2=0.41). The contemporary distribution and inter-population genetic variation were projected into future climates predicted by three General Circulation Models, two scenarios, and three time steps. All projections indicate early and sustained deterioration in the contemporary habitat. Concurrence among projections regarding the redistribution of suitable habitat to the north of the contemporary distribution identifies geographic locations with the highest probability of supporting vigorous stands of P. strobus. Concurrences among genetic projections clarify the intraspecific redistribution required to conserve adaptive variation. The projections have direct relevance in developing management strategies for accommodating the changing climate. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66682
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, 70 Foster Drive, Suite 400, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 6V5, Canada; Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 1221 S. Main, Moscow, ID 83843, United States
Recommended Citation:
Joyce D.G.,Rehfeldt G.E.. Climatic niche, ecological genetics, and impact of climate change on eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.): Guidelines for land managers[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,295