DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.06.049
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874990353
论文题名: Future U.S. wildfire potential trends projected using a dynamically downscaled climate change scenario
作者: Liu Y. ; Goodrick S.L. ; Stanturf J.A.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 294 起始页码: 120
结束页码: 135
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Continental U.S.
; Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI)
; Modified fosberg fire weather index (mFFWI)
; Wildfire
Scopus关键词: Climate change scenarios
; Continental U.S
; Drought indices
; Fire weather index
; Northern Rocky Mountains
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate models
; Wildfire
; Climate change
; Disaster prevention
; Drought
; Fires
; assessment method
; climate change
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; temperature effect
; wildfire
; wind velocity
; Atlantic Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Rocky Mountains
英文摘要: This study investigates trends in wildfire potential in the continental United States under a changing climate. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is determined by daily maximum temperature and precipitation. The impact of relative humidity and wind speed is examined by comparing KBDI with the modified Fosberg Fire Weather Index (mFFWI). The present (1971-2000) and future (2041-2070) daily regional climate conditions were obtained by dynamical downscaling of the HadCM3 global projection using HRM3 regional climate model provided by the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCP). It is shown that fire potential is expected to increase in the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, northern Great Plains, Southeast, and Pacific coast, mainly caused by future warming trends. Most pronounced increases occur in summer and autumn. Fire seasons will become longer in many regions. The future fire potential increase will be less pronounced in the northern Rocky Mountains due to the changes in humidity and wind. Present fire potential is found to have been increasing across continental U.S. in recent decades. The future KBDI increase in the central Plains and the South projected using the HadCM3-HRM3 climate change scenario is smaller than the increases using the climate change scenarios from most of other NARCCAP model combinations. Larger inter-seasonal and inter-annual fire potential variability is expected in the future in the Pacific and Atlantic coastal regions. The projected increases in wildfire potential for many regions of the U.S. suggest that increased resources and management efforts for disaster prevention and recovery would be needed in the future. © 2012. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66695
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Center for Forest Disturbance Science, US Forest Service, 320 Green St., Athens, GA 30602, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu Y.,Goodrick S.L.,Stanturf J.A.. Future U.S. wildfire potential trends projected using a dynamically downscaled climate change scenario[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,294