DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.12.018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84872557488
论文题名: Population dynamics of Ips typographus in the Bohemian Forest (Czech Republic): Validation of the phenology model PHENIPS and impacts of climate change
作者: Berec L. ; Doležal P. ; Hais M.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 292 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 9
语种: 英语
英文关键词: European spruce bark beetle
; Forest damage
; Insect outbreak
; Modeling
; Population dynamics
; Voltinism
Scopus关键词: Air temperature
; Bark beetle
; Czech Republic
; Development time
; Extreme weather events
; Forest damage
; Forest disturbances
; Insect ecology
; Insect outbreaks
; Interannual
; Ips typographus
; Large shifts
; Mean air temperatures
; Model dynamics
; Pest management
; Regional climate models
; Simulation model
; Spruce bark beetles
; Temperature development
; Voltinism
; Atmospheric temperature
; Biology
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Digital storage
; Dynamics
; Forecasting
; Models
; Phenols
; Population dynamics
; Forestry
; air temperature
; annual variation
; beetle
; climate change
; climate effect
; disturbance
; ecological modeling
; generation time
; pest damage
; pest outbreak
; phenology
; population dynamics
; population modeling
; swarming
; temperature effect
; voltinism
; Bark
; Biological Populations
; Climates
; Czech
; Damage
; Forestry
; Insects
; Mathematical Models
; Picea
; Simulation
; Temperature
; Bohemian Forest
; Bohemian Massif
; Czech Republic
; Coleoptera
; Hexapoda
; Ips typographus
; Picea
; Scolytinae
英文摘要: Phenology models play an important role in insect ecology and pest management. For bark beetle species prone to frequent outbreaks, they help predict swarming periods, discern sister generations hard to recognize in the field yet indispensable in studies of bark beetle population dynamics, predict the extent to which the generations entering diapause develop, as well as help address the omnipresent issue of impacts of climate change. As a prerequisite to developing a simulation model of landscape-level forest disturbances in the Bohemian Forest, including those due to Ips typographus, we validate the phenology model PHENIPS, published in the literature and simulating seasonal development of this species, by data coming from this region. We find a reasonable agreement between the modeled and actually observed bark beetle dynamics, thus strengthening the potential role of PHENIPS in any future attempt to model dynamics of Central European populations of I. typographus. In addition, we use PHENIPS to assess impacts of climate change on temperature-regulated phenology of I. typographus. In contrast to previous studies which used regional climate models to predict future temperature development, we independently account for changes in the mean air temperature and in the frequency of extreme weather events - for the latter, we assume that the inter-annual air temperature variance will also increase. Since bark beetle development is driven by bark temperatures and both low and high bark temperatures inhibit the development, we find that the effects of increases in the air temperature mean and variance are compensatory. Hence, if climate is to change so that both these characteristics grow, we expect only a relatively minor change in generation development time. Moreover, initiation of the third filial generation of I. typographus in the Bohemian Forest is predicted to occur only for relatively large shifts in the mean air temperature. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66733
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Biosystematics and Ecology, Institute of Entomology, Biology Centre of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Branišovská 31, 37005 České Budějovice, Czech Republic; Department of Biochemistry and Physiology, Institute of Entomology, Biology Centre of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Branišovská 31, 37005 České Budějovice, Czech Republic; Department of Ecosystem Biology, Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branišovská 31, 37005 české Budějovice, Czech Republic
Recommended Citation:
Berec L.,Doležal P.,Hais M.. Population dynamics of Ips typographus in the Bohemian Forest (Czech Republic): Validation of the phenology model PHENIPS and impacts of climate change[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,292