globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.11.026
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871862908
论文题名:
A comparison of fixed- and mixed-effects modeling in tree growth and yield prediction of an indigenous neotropical species (Centrolobium tomentosum) in a plantation system
作者: de-Miguel S.; Guzmán G.; Pukkala T.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN:  0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 291
起始页码: 249
结束页码: 258
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Conditional model ; Forest management ; Marginal model ; Random effects ; Stand dynamics ; Tropical tree species
Scopus关键词: Agroforestry ; Calibration data ; Conditional models ; Fixed-effects ; Forest restoration ; Forestry practices ; Growth and yield ; Growth and yield models ; Model calibration ; Model fitting ; Pioneer tree species ; Random effects ; Site quality ; South America ; Stand dynamics ; Tree growth ; Tropical tree species ; Volume increment ; Calibration ; Conservation ; Forecasting ; Random processes ; Forestry ; calibration ; comparative study ; forestry modeling ; growth modeling ; growth rate ; legume ; native species ; Neotropical Region ; numerical model ; pioneer species ; plantation forestry ; prediction ; yield ; Calibration ; Conservation ; Forecasts ; Forest Management ; Forestry ; Models ; Random Processes ; Species Identification ; Trees ; South America ; Centrolobium
英文摘要: Centrolobium tomentosum is a multipurpose pioneer tree species, indigenous in tropical South America and suitable for forest restoration, agroforestry and plantation systems. Despite its economic and ecological interest, no growth and yield models have been developed for this species so far. Fixed- and mixed-effects modeling can be used in model fitting, each technique having its pros and cons. Marginal predictions can be computed from fixed-effects models or randomized mixed-effects models. In forestry practice, models are seldom calibrated and mixed-effects models are mostly used to provide conditional predictions using only the fixed parameters, assuming that the random effects are zero. This study developed the first set of individual-tree growth and yield models for C. tomentosum and, by using the models, assessed the performance of three prediction approaches: fixed-effects models, conditional predictions of mixed-effects-models and marginal predictions of mixed-effects models. The fitted models predict maximum mean annual bole volume increments of 5.6-16.6m3/ha and optimal rotation lengths ranging from 11 to 21years, depending on site quality. Fixed-effects modeling was the best approach in growth and yield prediction, followed by conditional predictions of mixed-effects models, whereas marginal predictions based on mixed-effects models were in general the least accurate. Fixed-effects models should therefore be preferred in the absence of calibration data. However, since calibration is sometimes a feasible option, research articles should report both fixed- and mixed-effects models in order to enable the computation of the best predictions with and without the possibility of model calibration. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66768
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Faculty of Science and Forestry, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland; Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya (CTFC), Ctra. Sant Llorenç de Morunys, km. 2, 25280 Solsona, Spain; Escuela de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Mayor de San Simón, Final Av. Atahuallpa s/n, Temporal de Cala Cala, Barrio Prefectural, Cochabamba, Bolivia

Recommended Citation:
de-Miguel S.,Guzmán G.,Pukkala T.. A comparison of fixed- and mixed-effects modeling in tree growth and yield prediction of an indigenous neotropical species (Centrolobium tomentosum) in a plantation system[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,291
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