DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.11.028
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871874919
论文题名: Spatio-temporal prediction of tree mortality based on long-term sample plots, climate change scenarios and parametric frailty modeling
作者: Nothdurft A.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 291 起始页码: 43
结束页码: 54
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Frailty model
; Tree mortality prediction
Scopus关键词: B-spline
; Changing climate
; Climate change scenarios
; Climate data
; Climate projection
; Common beech
; Continuous monitoring
; Forest ecosystem
; Frailty models
; Hazard function
; Hazard rates
; Hazard ratio
; Linear predictors
; Mountainous regions
; Norway spruce trees
; Regression techniques
; Scots pine
; Silver fir
; Spatio-temporal prediction
; Tree mortality
; Tree species
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Hazards
; Forestry
; climate change
; coniferous forest
; deciduous forest
; elevation
; forest ecosystem
; mortality
; mountain region
; prediction
; risk assessment
; spatiotemporal analysis
; Climates
; Forecasts
; Forestry
; Hazards
; Models
; Baden-Wurttemberg
; Germany
; Abies
; Fagus
; Picea abies
; Pinus sylvestris
英文摘要: An approach is presented to predict the effects climate change may have on mortality of forest trees. Mortality is modeled using long-term observations from the Pan-European Programme for Intensive and Continuous Monitoring of Forest Ecosystems plots, retrospective climate data and frailty models having a parametric baseline hazard function. The linear predictor is modeled by B-spline regression techniques to allow for nonlinear cause-and-effect curves. Spatio-temporal predictions of mortality of four major tree species in the German state of Baden-Württemberg were derived in terms of unconditional hazard ratios and based on climate projection data.According to the model, marginal risk of tree death for 100. year old Norway spruce trees will be doubled until 2100. Hazard rates of common beech will be halved in low elevation areas and will be reduced by 25% in higher elevations until 2100. Hazard rates of silver fir will be less affected by a changing climate and will increase by at least 25% and by a maximum of 100% in mountainous regions. Scots pines hazard rates will be halved on higher elevation sites and will increase on lower elevation sites. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66783
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg, Department of Biometrics and Informatics, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Nothdurft A.. Spatio-temporal prediction of tree mortality based on long-term sample plots, climate change scenarios and parametric frailty modeling[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,291