DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.08.031
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84867748320
论文题名: Assessing forest vegetation and fire simulation model performance after the Cold Springs wildfire, Washington USA
作者: Hummel S. ; Kennedy M. ; Ashley Steel E.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 287 起始页码: 40
结束页码: 52
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Fire behavior and effects
; Forest structure
; Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) and FFE-FVS
; Multi-criteria assessment
; Pareto optimality
Scopus关键词: Fire behavior
; Forest structure
; Forest vegetation simulator
; Multi-criteria assessment
; Pareto-optimality
; Fires
; Forestry
; Fuels
; Meteorology
; Computer simulation
; accuracy assessment
; computer simulation
; fire behavior
; forest management
; fuelwood
; litter
; mortality
; multicriteria analysis
; optimization
; performance assessment
; sensitivity analysis
; simulator
; stand structure
; vegetation structure
; weather station
; wildfire
; Fires
; Forestry
; Fuels
; Meteorology
; Plants
; Simulation
; United States
; Washington [United States]
英文摘要: Given that resource managers rely on computer simulation models when it is difficult or expensive to obtain vital information directly, it is important to evaluate how well a particular model satisfies applications for which it is designed. The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is used widely for forest management in the US, and its scope and complexity continue to increase. This paper focuses on the accuracy of estimates made by the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE-FVS) predictions through comparisons between model outputs and measured post-fire conditions for the Cold Springs wildfire and on the sensitivity of model outputs to weather, disease, and fuel inputs. For each set of projected, pre-fire stand conditions, a fire was simulated that approximated the actual conditions of the Cold Springs wildfire as recorded by local portable weather stations. We also simulated a fire using model default values. From the simulated post-fire conditions, values of tree mortality and fuel loads were obtained for comparison to post-fire, observed values. We designed eight scenarios to evaluate how model output changed with varying input values for three parameter sets of interest: fire weather, disease, and fuels. All of the tested model outputs displayed some sensitivity to alternative model inputs. Our results indicate that tree mortality and fuels were most sensitive to whether actual or default weather was used and least sensitive to whether or not disease data were included as model inputs. The performance of FFE-FVS for estimating total surface fuels was better for the scenarios using actual weather data than for the scenarios using default weather data. It was rare that the model could predict fine fuels or litter. Our results suggest that using site-specific information over model default values could significantly improve the accuracy of simulated values. © 2012. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66875
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Portland, United States; University of Washington, Seattle, United States; USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Seattle, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hummel S.,Kennedy M.,Ashley Steel E.. Assessing forest vegetation and fire simulation model performance after the Cold Springs wildfire, Washington USA[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,287