globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062379
论文题名:
Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24 h postmain shock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake
作者: Parsons T.; Segou M.; Sevilgen V.; Milner K.; Field E.; Toda S.; Stein R.S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9438
EISSN: 1944-9169
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期:24
起始页码: 8792
结束页码: 8799
语种: 英语
英文关键词: earthquake interactions ; prospective stress-based forecasts
Scopus关键词: Faulting ; Forecasting ; California ; Coulomb stress changes ; Earthquake rupture ; Large earthquakes ; Main shock ; San Francisco Bay ; Stress changes ; Stress transfer ; Earthquakes ; aftershock ; earthquake event ; fault ; forecasting method ; hazard assessment ; seismicity ; stress change ; California ; San Francisco Bay ; United States
英文摘要: We calculate stress changes resulting from the M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress-based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults. Key Points The West Napa earthquake changed stress on Bay Area faultsRapid stress-based earthquake forecasts for evaluating methodsForecasts will be evaluated against the actual aftershock patterns ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921834826&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062379&partnerID=40&md5=eebe890e5d759051c6e5cda68021c90a
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6702
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Parsons T.,Segou M.,Sevilgen V.,et al. Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24 h postmain shock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(24).
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Parsons T.]'s Articles
[Segou M.]'s Articles
[Sevilgen V.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Parsons T.]'s Articles
[Segou M.]'s Articles
[Sevilgen V.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Parsons T.]‘s Articles
[Segou M.]‘s Articles
[Sevilgen V.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.