DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062071
论文题名: Sensitivity of hurricane forecasts to cumulus parameterizations in the HWRF model
作者: Biswas M.K. ; Bernardet L. ; Dudhia J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9454
EISSN: 1944-9185
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 24 起始页码: 9113
结束页码: 9119
语种: 英语
英文关键词: cumulus
; initial conditions
Scopus关键词: Clouds
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Parameterization
; Storms
; Control configuration
; Convective parameterization
; cumulus
; Cumulus parameterization
; Eastern north pacific
; Initial conditions
; Model initialization
; Weather research and forecasting
; Weather forecasting
; convective system
; cyclone
; hurricane
; parameterization
; sensitivity analysis
; storm
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: The Developmental Testbed Center used the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system to test the sensitivity of tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts to different convective schemes. A control configuration that employed the HWRF Simplified Arakawa Scheme (SAS) was compared with the Kain-Fritsch and Tiedtke schemes, as well as with a newer implementation of the SAS. A comprehensive test for Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific storms shows that the SAS scheme produces the best track forecasts. Even though the convective parameterization was absent in the inner 3 km nest, the intensity forecasts are sensitive to the choice of cumulus scheme on the outer grids. The impact of convective-scale heating on the environmental flow accumulates in time since the hurricane vortex is cycled in the HWRF model initialization. This study shows that, for a given forecast, the sensitivity to cumulus parameterization combines the influence of physics and initial conditions. Key Points Impact of convective parameterization on track and intensity of TCsThe initial conditions play a dominant role for cycled forecastsNest feedback impacts intensity with no parameterization in innermost domain ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921777864&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062071&partnerID=40&md5=3a76ea97d180bc2ef43dd9adb2e41200
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6718
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Biswas M.K.,Bernardet L.,Dudhia J.. Sensitivity of hurricane forecasts to cumulus parameterizations in the HWRF model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(24).