globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.005
论文题名:
Strategic foresight: How planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making
作者: Cook C.N.; Inayatullah S.; Burgman M.A.; Sutherland W.J.; Wintle B.A.
刊名: Trends in Ecology and Evolution
ISSN: 1695347
出版年: 2014
卷: 29, 期:9
起始页码: 531
结束页码: 541
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Alternative futures ; Causal layered analysis ; Conservation ; Conservation policy ; Decision-making ; Environmental futures ; Futures research ; Futures studies ; Strategic thinking
Scopus关键词: biodiversity ; conservation planning ; decision making ; environmental monitoring ; environmental planning ; environmental policy ; strategic environmental assessment ; biodiversity ; decision making ; ecology ; environment ; environmental planning ; environmental protection ; forecasting ; organization and management ; trends ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; Ecology ; Environment ; Environmental Policy ; Forecasting ; Planning Techniques
英文摘要: Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67333
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia; School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia; Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, QLD 4558, Australia; Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Faculty of Arts, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia; Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Cook C.N.,Inayatullah S.,Burgman M.A.,et al. Strategic foresight: How planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making[J]. Trends in Ecology and Evolution,2014-01-01,29(9)
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