DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2016.041
论文题名: Forecasting sea level changes applying data mining techniques to the cristobal bay time series, Panama
作者: Simmonds J.A. ; Gómez J.A. ; Ledezma A.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2017
卷: 8, 期: 1 起始页码: 89
结束页码: 101
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cfs evaluator
; Cross-validation
; Data mining
; Forecasting
; Time series
; Wrapper evaluator
英文摘要: Time series forecasting using data mining models applied to various time sequence data of a wide variety of domains has been well documented. In this work, time series of water level data recorded every hour at ‘Cristobal Bay’ in Panama during the years 1909–1980 are employed to construct a model(s) that can be suitable for predicting changes in sea level patterns. Four time lag assemblages of variable combinations of the time series information are fully explored to identify the optimal combinations for the dataset using a data mining tool. The results, based on the assessment using time series of Cristobal data, show that in general using cross-validation and a longer time lag period of the time series led to more accurate forecasting of the model than that of a shorter lag period of the time series. The study also suggests that data mining techniques using cross-validation and the aid of an attribute evaluator can be effectively used in modeling time series for changes in sea level at coastal areas, and changes in ecosystems that by their nature are characterized by nonlinearity and presentation of chaotic climatic changes in their physical behavior. © IWA Publishing 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67571
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Engineering, University of Panama, Campus Dr Harmodio Arias Madrid, Curundu, Estafeta Universitaria, Panama, Panama; Departamento de Biología Marina, University of Panana, Estafeta Universitaria, Apartado 3366, Panamá 4, Panama; Departamento de Informática, Carlos III University of Madrid, Ave De la Universidad 30, Leganes, Madrid, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Simmonds J.A.,Gómez J.A.,Ledezma A.. Forecasting sea level changes applying data mining techniques to the cristobal bay time series, Panama[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2017-01-01,8(1)