DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2016.045
论文题名: Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: Applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods
作者: Danesh A.S. ; Ahadi M.S. ; Fahmi H. ; Nokhandan M.H. ; Eshraghi H.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 3 起始页码: 551
结束页码: 577
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; LARS-WG
; MAGICC-SCENGEN
; PRECIS
; RAM
; Water resources
英文摘要: As a result of inappropriate management and rising levels of societal demand, in arid and semi-arid regions water resources are becoming increasingly stressed. Therefore, well-established insight into the effects of climate change on water resource components can be considered to be an essential strategy to reduce these effects. In this paper, Iran’s climate change and variability, and the impact of climate change on water resources, were studied. Climate change was assessed by means of two Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) weather generators and all outputs from the available general circulation models in the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change-SCENario GENerator (MAGICC-SCENGEN) software, in combination with different emission scenarios at the regional scale, while the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model has been used for projections at the local scale. A hydrological model, the Runoff Assessment Model (RAM), was first utilized to simulate water resources for Iran. Then, using the MAGICC-SCENGEN model and the downscaled results as input for the RAM model, a prediction was made for changes in 30 basins and runoffs. Modeling results indicate temperature and precipitation changes in the range of ±6 °C and ±60%, respectively. Temperature rise increases evaporation and decreases runoff, but has been found to cause an increased rate of runoff in winter and a decrease in spring. © IWA Publishing 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67582
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Environment, National Climate Change Office, No. 161, International Projects BLDG, Pardisan ECO-PARK, Hakim Expressway, P.O. Box 14155-7383, Tehran, Iran; University of Tehran, First Floor, No. 28, Fatemi Alley, North Kargar Avenue, Tehran, Iran; Climatological Research Institute, National Centre of Climatology Unit 4, No. 13, Faramarz 12 Alley, Faramarz Abbasi Blvd, Mashhad, Iran
Recommended Citation:
Danesh A.S.,Ahadi M.S.,Fahmi H.,et al. Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: Applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(3)