DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.207
论文题名: Dynamical versus statistical downscaling for the generation of regional climate change scenarios at a Western Mediterranean basin: The Júcar River District
作者: Chirivella V. ; Capilla J.E. ; Pérez-Martín M.A.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 2 起始页码: 379
结束页码: 392
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Convective precipitation
; Downscaling
; Júcar River basin
; Non-convective precipitation
; Western mediterranean
英文摘要: Current climate change (CC) predictions for the Western Mediterranean show a significant increase in temperature, and a decrease in precipitations, with great variability depending on general circulation models (GCM) and downscaling approaches. This paper analyses how dynamic downscaling improves statistically based CC scenarios. The study area was the Júcar River Basin (JB), with results from ECHAM5 GCM, and a close time frame of 2010-2040 appropriated for decisionmaking. The dynamic downscaling was performed with the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM3. It was applied to a coarse grid over the Iberian Peninsula, and then to a finer grid over the JB. The RCM was customized to reproduce Western Mediterranean climatic conditions using the convective precipitation scheme of Grell; the non-convective scheme was customized by changing the default RHmin and Cptt parameters to reproduce precipitations originated by larger-scale atmospheric circulations. The RCM results, compared to current official Spanish Agency of Meteorology (AEMET) scenarios-statistically based-reproduce much better historical data (used to verify scenarios generation). They foresee a 21.0% precipitation decrease for 2010-2040, compared to previous ECHAM4 predictions with statistical downscaling (-6.64%). The most significant reductions are in February, September and October. Average estimated temperature increase is 0.75 °C, with high increments in July (+3.05 °C) and August (+1.89 °C). © IWA Publishing 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67590
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera, s/n, Valencia, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Chirivella V.,Capilla J.E.,Pérez-Martín M.A.. Dynamical versus statistical downscaling for the generation of regional climate change scenarios at a Western Mediterranean basin: The Júcar River District[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(2)