DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.072
论文题名: Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive
作者: Sonali P. ; Nagesh Kumar D.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 1 起始页码: 83
结束页码: 102
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change signal
; CMIP5 dataset
; Formal detection-attribution
; Natural internal climate variability
; Seasonal temperature
; Trend detection
英文摘要: This study analyzes the change in annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) during the period 1950–2005 (i.e., second half of the 20th century). In-depth analyses have been carried out for all over India as well as for five temperature homogenous regions of India separately. First, the temporal variations of annual and seasonal Tmax and Tmin are analyzed, employing the trend free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall approach. Secondly, it is assessed whether the observations contain significant signals above the natural internal variability determined from a long ‘piControl’ experiment, using Monte Carlo simulation. Thirdly, fingerprint based formal detection and attribution analysis is used to determine the signal strengths of observed and model simulations with respect to different considered experiments. Finally, these signal strengths are compared to attribute the observed changes in Tmax and Tmin to different factors. All the model simulated datasets are retrieved from the CMIP5 archive. It is noticed that the emergence of observed trends is more pronounced in Tmincompared to Tmax. Although observed changes are not solely associated with one specific causative factor, most of the changes in Tmin lie above the bounds of natural internal climate variability. © IWA Publishing 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67592
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; Centre for Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
Recommended Citation:
Sonali P.,Nagesh Kumar D.. Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(1)