DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2016.151
论文题名: Improved estimate of multiyear drought for water resources management studies
作者: Tarawneh Z. ; Khalayleh Y.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 4 起始页码: 721
结束页码: 730
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arid region
; Extension model
; Multiyear drought
; Water shortage
英文摘要: Using short hydrological records to characterise extreme drought for water studies could lead to uncertain results. At first, this article introduces a generic model that extends the length of short hydrological records to improve the analysis of drought. Using simulated data, the extension model performance was tested and found to work well and later the model was used to extend the annual precipitation for Reba region back to 1924. The analysis of the extended precipitation shows the occurrence of 23 drought events that is about 50% more than the number of events detected from the analysis of the short historical precipitation. The analysis shows that events of 1 year duration are common while events of 3 years or more are rare. Furthermore, this article proposes a theoretical model that can be used to estimate the number of drought events that may emerge during a fixed period. The model is shown to be reliable, and the estimated drought numbers can be used in planning for the water supply from the traditional water sources. Moreover, the article suggests a few measures to improve the water supply in Jordan during dry conditions. © IWA Publishing 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67597
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Civil Engineering Department, Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan
Recommended Citation:
Tarawneh Z.,Khalayleh Y.. Improved estimate of multiyear drought for water resources management studies[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(4)