DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.081
论文题名: Projected precipitation and air temperature over Europe using a performance-based selection method of CMIP5 GCMs
作者: Basharin D. ; Polonsky A. ; Stankūnavičius G.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 1 起始页码: 103
结束页码: 113
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP5
; Europe
; Precipitation and temperature
英文摘要: An assessment of the plausible climate change in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) over the European region by the end of the 21st century is provided. The assessment is based on the results of output of the ocean–atmosphere models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). Six climate models that best reproduce the historical behaviour of SAT over greater Europe were selected from the CMIP5 project using a performance-based selection method of CMIP5 general circulation models for further assessments. The analysis of historical simulations within the scope of the CMIP5 project reveals that six models (namely, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2ES, GFDL-CM3, CanESM2, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR) sufficiently reproduce historical tendencies and natural variability over the region of interest. The climate change in SAT and precipitation by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) was examined within the scope of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for these selected models. Typical regional warming due to RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario is assessed as 3–4.5 °C (as 4–8 °C) in summer and winter, while a significant reduction of precipitation (typically 20–40%) is obtained only in summer. © IWA Publishing 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67598
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Marine Climatic Research, Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Institute of Natural-Technical Systems, 2 Kapitanskay St, Sevastopol, Russian Federation; Department of Hydrology and Climatology, Vilnius University, Ciurlionio 21/27, Vilnius, Lithuania
Recommended Citation:
Basharin D.,Polonsky A.,Stankūnavičius G.. Projected precipitation and air temperature over Europe using a performance-based selection method of CMIP5 GCMs[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(1)