DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.153
论文题名: Analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on rainfed wheat production in Hamedan Province, Iran, via generalized additive models
作者: Mosammam H.M. ; Mosammam A.M. ; Sarrafi M. ; Nia J.T. ; Esmaeilzadeh H.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 1 起始页码: 212
结束页码: 223
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agriculture
; Climate change
; Hamedan province
; Rainfed wheat
英文摘要: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in the 21st century and the agriculture sector is very vulnerable to this phenomenon. Since wheat is the most important cereal crop in Iran, we aim to analyze the potential impact of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) on rainfed wheat productivity in Hamedan Province, Iran. For this purpose, generalized additive models have been used to model yields of rainfed wheat based on climatic variables during 2004–2012. Then, based on sensitivity of rainfed wheat to temperature and precipitation in this period, we predict the potential effects of climate change on rainfed wheat yield under the IPCC SRES A1FI and B1 climate change scenarios. Results suggest that yields of rainfed wheat would decrease in all Hamedan's counties primarily because of decreasing October to June precipitation and higher temperature. As a result, it is predicted that the yield of rainfed wheat in Hamedan under the A1F1 and B1 scenarios will fall by 41.3% and 20.6%, respectively, in the 2080s. In other words, according to the A1F1 scenario, in the 2080s, Hamedan Province's rainfed wheat production will decline from 1090 kg/ha to 639 kg/ha and under the B1 scenario to 865 kg/ha. © IWA Publishing 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67607
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran; Department of Statistics, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
Recommended Citation:
Mosammam H.M.,Mosammam A.M.,Sarrafi M.,et al. Analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on rainfed wheat production in Hamedan Province, Iran, via generalized additive models[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(1)