DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.049
论文题名: Modeling the impacts of climate change and future land use variation on microbial transport
作者: Coffey R. ; Benham B. ; Kline K. ; Wolfe M.L. ; Cummins E.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2015
卷: 6, 期: 3 起始页码: 449
结束页码: 471
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Land management
; Microbial transport
; Watershed modeling
英文摘要: The impact of waterborne micro-organisms (potentially pathogenic) on public health may be exacerbated by the combined effects of climate and land use change. We used watershed modeling to assess the potential effects of climate change and future land management scenarios on microbial water quality in the Pigg River watershed, located in southwest Virginia, USA. The hydrologic simulation program in Fortran, climate forecasts from the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment, future projections for land management, and current watershed data were used to simulate a range of potential future scenarios for the period 2040-2069. Results indicate that changes in climate will have the most significant impact on microbial fate and transport, with increased loading driven by trends in seasonal and annual precipitation. High flow and low flow periods represent periods of greatest uncertainty. As climate factors are to an extent uncontrollable, adaptation measures targeting land based source loads will be required to maintain water quality within existing regulatory standards. In addition, new initiatives may need to be identified and incorporated into water policy. This is likely to have repercussions for all watershed inhabitants and stakeholders, but will assist in sustaining water quality standards and protecting human health. © IWA Publishing 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67637
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: UCD School of Biosystems Engineering, Agriculture and Food Science Center, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland; Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Virginia Tech, Seitz hall, Blacksburg, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Coffey R.,Benham B.,Kline K.,et al. Modeling the impacts of climate change and future land use variation on microbial transport[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2015-01-01,6(3)