DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2014.237
论文题名: Robust method for estimating grain yield in western Kenya during the growing seasons
作者: Mugalavai E.M. ; Kipkorir E.C.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2015
卷: 6, 期: 2 起始页码: 313
结束页码: 324
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AquaCrop
; Climate
; Crop yields
; Food security
; Markov processes
; Simulation
英文摘要: Uncertainties caused by climate change and population explosion require suitable methods for estimating grain yield during the growing seasons. This paper evaluates the applicability of the AquaCrop model in the region of western Kenya. The objectives of the study were to: simulate the long-term maize crop yields for the region using AquaCrop model for variable climate scenarios, and estimate the expected yield for the ongoing season. Climate was classified into below normal (x̅+ 1∂) conditions based on the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) convention. Simulation of grain yield was based on model calibration results, periodic KMD forecasts and the long-term mean for the seasons. The calibrated model is able to estimate both long-term seasonal grain yield and expected harvest for the ongoing season based on climatic conditions that are compared with the long-term seasonal characteristics and complemented by meteorological forecasts. The ongoing season yield simulation was based on persistence theory of Markov processes whose results strongly correlated (r = 0.9) with actual seasonal observed yield. © IWA Publishing 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67671
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology (CDMHA), Kakamega, Kenya; University of Eldoret, School of Engineering, Eldoret, Kenya
Recommended Citation:
Mugalavai E.M.,Kipkorir E.C.. Robust method for estimating grain yield in western Kenya during the growing seasons[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2015-01-01,6(2)