DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2014.103
论文题名: An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions
作者: Åström H. ; Friis Hansen P. ; Garré L. ; Arnbjerg-Nielsen K.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2014
卷: 5, 期: 3 起始页码: 276
结束页码: 286
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian network
; Climate change
; Cost-benefit analysis
; Decision-making
; Flood risk assessment
; Influence diagram
英文摘要: Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under non- stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes. Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time. The overall risk is quantified in monetary terms expressed as expected annual damage. The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time. The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future. The result from the ID was extended with a cost-benefit analysis defining the net benefits for the investment plans. We tested our framework in a case study where the risk for flooding was assessed on a railway track in Risskov, Aarhus. Drainage system improvements are planned for the area. Our study illustrates with the use of an ID how risk for flooding increases over time, and the benefits of implementing flood adaptation measures. © IWA Publishing 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67708
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Environmental Engineering, Section of Urban Water Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark; Det Norske Veritas, Høvik, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Åström H.,Friis Hansen P.,Garré L.,et al. An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2014-01-01,5(3)