| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL061214
|
| 论文题名: | Predictability horizon of oceanic rogue waves |
| 作者: | Alam M.-R.
|
| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
|
| ISSN: | 0094-9506
|
| EISSN: | 1944-9237
|
| 出版年: | 2014
|
| 卷: | 41, 期:23 | | 起始页码: | 8477
|
| 结束页码: | 8485
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | oceanic rogue waves
; predictability
; sensitivity analysis
|
| Scopus关键词: | Ocean currents
; Sensitivity analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water waves
; Computational experiment
; Critical evaluation
; Horizon of predictabilities
; Model equations
; Predictability
; Quantitative metric
; Rogue waves
; Temporal effects
; Time measurement
; ocean wave
; quantitative analysis
; timescale
; uncertainty analysis
; wave modeling
|
| 英文摘要: | Prediction is a central goal and a yet-unresolved challenge in the investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational experiments, a statistically converged predictability time scale for these structures. We show that this time scale is a function of the sea state (i.e., severity of the ambient ocean waves), the height of the anticipated rogue wave, and the level of uncertainties in the ocean measurements. The presented predictability time scale establishes a quantitative metric on the combined temporal effects of the variety of mechanisms that together lead to the formation of a rogue wave and is crucial for the assessment of validity of rogue wave predictions, as well as for the critical evaluation of results from the widely used model equations. Key PointsThere is a predictability time scale associated with rogue wave eventsLarger rogue waves have a shorter horizon of predictabilityRogue waves are less predictable in rougher seas (due to nonlinearities) ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921611003&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061214&partnerID=40&md5=a09847f5c1598c727cda64165231e4b8
|
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6770
|
| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Alam M.-R.. Predictability horizon of oceanic rogue waves[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(23).
|
|
|