DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2013.037
论文题名: Downscaling technique to estimate hydrologic vulnerability to climate change: An application to the Conchos River Basin, Mexico
作者: Acosta I.R. ; Montero Martínez M.J.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2013
卷: 4, 期: 4 起始页码: 440
结束页码: 457
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AOGCM
; Climate change
; Conchos River Basin
; Downscaling
; REA
; Vulnerability
英文摘要: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that vulnerability to climate change depends on three main factors: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Each factor was evaluated in a hydrologic context, for instance exposure was interpreted as a change in surface runoff. Factors were combined using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and an overall methodology to map hydrologic vulnerability was proposed. The Conchos River Basin, which is the main tributary of the Rio Grande, was used as a case study. The long-term rate of change in surface runoff was estimated considering the variation in future precipitation from 23 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) by using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. Two climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) and three time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2100) were chosen. Results showed a decrease in surface runoff up to 28% (A1B-2100) north of the Basin. Hence, it is likely to have more frequent droughts. However, it would be challenging to compensate the lack of surface runoff since groundwater resources are already depleted. Finally, overall hydrologic vulnerability maps were obtained to locate the most vulnerable regions, where precisely adaption efforts would be more necessary to sustain environmental conditions. © IWA Publishing 2013. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67728
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Surface Hydrology Department, Mexican Institute of Water Technology, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico; National Water Commission, National Meteorological Service, Tacubaya, Mexico City, DF, Mexico
Recommended Citation:
Acosta I.R.,Montero Martínez M.J.. Downscaling technique to estimate hydrologic vulnerability to climate change: An application to the Conchos River Basin, Mexico[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2013-01-01,4(4)