globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2013.088
论文题名:
Assessment of future flood intensification in Central Vietnam using a super-high-resolution climate model output
作者: Nam D.H.; Udo K.; Mano A.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2013
卷: 4, 期:4
起始页码: 373
结束页码: 389
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Downscaling ; Flood intensification ; Heavy rainfall ; Super-high-resolution climate model
英文摘要: This paper presents an assessment of the changes in future floods. The ranked area-average heavy daily rainfall amounts simulated by a super-high-resolution (20 km mesh) global climate model output are corrected with consideration of the effects of the topography on heavy rainfall patterns and used as a basis to model design storm hyetographs. The rainfall data are then used as the input for a nearly calibration-free parameter rainfall-runoff model to simulate floods in the future climate (2075-2099) at the Upper Thu Bon River basin in Central Vietnam. The results show that although the future mean annual rainfall will not be considerably different compared to the present-day climate (1979-2003), extreme rainfall is projected to increase vigorously, leading to a similar order of intensification of future floods. It is very likely that the flood peak with a 25-year recurrence will increase approximately 42% relative to the present-day climate. The occurrence of floods with a 10-year recurrence may exceed those with a 25-year recurrence in the present-day climate. The projection results also exhibit insignificant uncertainties caused by an artificial neural network-based bias correction model. Additionally, the presented bias correction model shows advantages over a simple climatology scaling method. © IWA Publishing 2013.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67729
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Aoba 6-6-11, Sendai 980-8579, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Nam D.H.,Udo K.,Mano A.. Assessment of future flood intensification in Central Vietnam using a super-high-resolution climate model output[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2013-01-01,4(4)
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