DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2013.068
论文题名: Evaluating the cumulative rainfall deviation approach for projecting groundwater levels under future climate
作者: Emelyanova I. ; Ali R. ; Dawes W. ; Varma S. ; Hodgson G. ; McFarlane D.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2013
卷: 4, 期: 4 起始页码: 317
结束页码: 337
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CDFM
; Climate change
; Groundwater hydrographs
; Groundwater modelling
; HARTT
; Hydrograph analysis
英文摘要: In south-western Australia (SWA) groundwater levels have been declining under the changing climate associated with a decline of rainfall. Possible future groundwater yields in SWA have been estimated under a range of climate change scenarios using a number of numerical groundwater models. For the Northern Perth Basin (NPB) in SWA, where no groundwater models were available, a relatively simple statistical method CDFM (Cumulative Deviation from Mean) has been applied using HARTT (Hydrograph Analysis and Rainfall Time Trends), an automated derivation of the CDFM. This study has evaluated the potential of the CDFM to project groundwater levels under various future climate scenarios in the NPB. Firstly, HARTT projections were validated by comparing with the modelled hydrographs in areas where numerical groundwater models were available. It was evident that HARTT may overestimate future declines or rises in groundwater levels depending on the time a new climate regime is imposed on the model. Secondly, HARTT was applied to suitable bores in the NPB under future climate scenarios. HARTT projected a slight decline under a drier future climate than under the historical future climate and a moderate or slight rise in groundwater levels under a wetter future climate. If historical climatic conditions continue until 2030, groundwater levels are expected to slightly rise in the NPB. © CSIRO 2013. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67730
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia; CSIRO Earth Science and Resource Engineering, PO Box 1130, Bentley, WA 6102, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Emelyanova I.,Ali R.,Dawes W.,et al. Evaluating the cumulative rainfall deviation approach for projecting groundwater levels under future climate[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2013-01-01,4(4)