DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2013.051
论文题名: Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change
作者: Kyselý J. ; Gaál L. ; Picek J. ; Schindler M.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2013
卷: 4, 期: 3 起始页码: 265
结束页码: 286
语种: 英语
英文关键词: August 2010 flood
; Central Europe
; Climate change scenarios
; Extreme value analysis
; Heavy precipitation
; Regional frequency analysis
英文摘要: The study deals with estimates of return periods associated with the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic), which resulted in flooding with enormous material damage and loss of lives, in the present climate and under climate change scenarios. We focus on the recordbreaking 1-day and 2-day amounts at lower-elevation stations, exceeding 150 and 250 mm, respectively. The estimates of return periods are based on two methods of regional frequency analysis and they are compared with local (at-site) estimation. The regional methods consistently suggest that the August 2010 event was exceptional in view of past records, but the return levels decline substantially - by a factor of 2-4 - if parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution are allowed to vary in accordance with scenarios based on an ensemble of regional climate model projections for 2070-99. In spite of large uncertainty associated with future climate change scenarios, increased recurrence probability of such heavy precipitation events in the 21st century should be taken into account when designing and implementing flood risk prevention and mitigation measures. © IWA Publishing 2013. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67737
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague 4, Czech Republic; Department of Applied Mathematics, Technical University, Liberec, Czech Republic; Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology, Bratislava, Slovakia
Recommended Citation:
Kyselý J.,Gaál L.,Picek J.,et al. Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2013-01-01,4(3)