DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2013.039
论文题名: Climate projection ensemble as support to water management and irrigation in Nigeria
作者: Santini M. ; Valentini R. ; Cervigni R.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2013
卷: 4, 期: 3 起始页码: 287
结束页码: 301
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change impacts
; Ensemble
; Robust decision-making
; Uncertainty
; Water resources
英文摘要: Hydrological modeling was used for projecting average annual water availability in Nigeria in the future, comparing a baseline (1976-2005) with a 30-year future (2036-2065) period, simulated under an ensemble of ten climate projections. Simulations converged in projecting by mid-century an increase in water flows for almost half of the country. Models agreed also in projecting decrease and stability in water flows for 13% of the country, while uncertainty covers about one-third of Nigeria. Lack of agreement among different climate models on precipitation and inflow makes it difficult to project how much water will be effectively available in the future for irrigation. Reservoir size is usually designed to ensure sufficient storage providing a given yield based on past climate. The objective of this paper is evaluating what storage investments are suitable for meeting irrigation development targets under as many climate outcomes as possible. A simple methodology for more robust investment planning is suggested and the risk of over- or under-designing storage based on past climate is exemplified. This preliminary study shows that, for more than half of the country, using the historical climate as a guide to the design of future storage might lead to inappropriate investment decisions, resulting in excessive or insufficient capital outlays. The conclusions of the paper do not entail endorsement by the World Bank or its Board of Directors. © IWA Publishing 2013. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67744
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce, Italy; Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems (DIBAF), University of Tuscia, Via S. Camillo de Lellis, 01100 Viterbo, Italy; Environment and Natural Resources (AFTEN) Africa Region, The World Bank1818 H Street, N.W. Washington DC 20433, United States
Recommended Citation:
Santini M.,Valentini R.,Cervigni R.. Climate projection ensemble as support to water management and irrigation in Nigeria[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2013-01-01,4(3)