DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062081
论文题名: Potential sea ice predictability and the role of stochastic sea ice strength perturbations
作者: Juricke S. ; Goessling H.F. ; Jung T.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9532
EISSN: 1944-9263
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 23 起始页码: 8396
结束页码: 8403
语种: 英语
英文关键词: coupled climate model
; potential predictability
; sea ice
; stochastic parametrizations
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Parameterization
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; Time measurement
; Uncertainty analysis
; Coupled climate model
; Data assimilation
; Initial condition uncertainties
; Initial perturbation
; Model uncertainties
; Parametrizations
; Potential predictability
; Sea-ice thickness
; Sea ice
; climate modeling
; data assimilation
; ice thickness
; regional pattern
; sea ice
; timescale
; uncertainty analysis
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: Ensemble experiments with a climate model are carried out in order to explore how incorporating a stochastic ice strength parameterization to account for model uncertainty affects estimates of potential sea ice predictability on time scales from days to seasons. The impact of this new parameterization depends strongly on the spatial scale, lead time and the hemisphere being considered: Whereas the representation of model uncertainty increases the ensemble spread of Arctic sea ice thickness predictions generated by atmospheric initial perturbations up to about 4 weeks into the forecast, rather small changes are found for longer lead times as well as integrated quantities such as total sea ice area. The regions where initial condition uncertainty generates spread in sea ice thickness on subseasonal time scales (primarily along the ice edge) differ from that of the stochastic sea ice strength parameterization (along the coast lines and in the interior of the Arctic). For the Antarctic the influence of the stochastic sea ice strength parameterization is much weaker due to the predominance of thinner first year ice. These results suggest that sea ice data assimilation and prediction on subseasonal time scales could benefit from taking model uncertainty into account, especially in the Arctic. Key PointsSea ice model uncertainty estimates increase spread for subseasonal predictionsSeasonal prediction estimates not affected by sea ice model uncertainties ©2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921540559&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062081&partnerID=40&md5=c122d61b22b6a428a4835410a345d0ab
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6796
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Juricke S.,Goessling H.F.,Jung T.. Potential sea ice predictability and the role of stochastic sea ice strength perturbations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(23).