DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062186
论文题名: Extratropical cyclones in a warmer, moister climate: A recent Atlantic analogue
作者: Li M. ; Woollings T. ; Hodges K. ; Masato G.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9550
EISSN: 1944-9281
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 23 起始页码: 8594
结束页码: 8601
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
; climate change
; storm tracks
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Storms
; Wind
; Current models
; Extratropical cyclones
; High-resolution models
; Maximum wind speed
; Moist process
; Multidecadal variability
; North Atlantic
; Storm track
; Climate change
; climate modeling
; cyclone
; extratropical environment
; precipitation (climatology)
; simulation
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Current climate model projections do not exhibit a large change in the intensity of extratropical cyclones. However, there are concerns that current models represent moist processes poorly, and this provides motivation for investigating observational evidence for how cyclones behave in warmer climates. In the North Atlantic in particular, recent decades provide a clear contrast between warm and cold climates due to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In this paper we investigate these periods as analogues which may provide a guide to future cyclone behavior. While temperature and moisture rise in recent warm periods as in the projections, differences in energetics and temperature gradients imply that these periods are only partial analogues. The main result from current reanalyses is that while increased cyclone-associated precipitation is seen in the recent warm periods, there is no robust evidence of an increase in cyclone intensity by other measures, such as maximum wind speed or vorticity. A set of low- and high-resolution model simulations are also studied, suggesting that changes in cyclone intensity may be different in higher-resolution reanalyses. Key PointsRecent warm AMV periods are partial analogues of future warmingIn warm periods, cyclone precipitation increases but they do not intensifyChanges in storm intensity may be different at high resolution ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921602952&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062186&partnerID=40&md5=45dd9d7f68d740b5301fb2996139de28
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6814
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Li M.,Woollings T.,Hodges K.,et al. Extratropical cyclones in a warmer, moister climate: A recent Atlantic analogue[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(23).