| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL061694
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| 论文题名: | Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill? |
| 作者: | Day J.J.; Hawkins E.; Tietsche S.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9650
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| EISSN: | 1944-9381
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:21 | | 起始页码: | 7566
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| 结束页码: | 7575
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Arctic
; polar
; predictability
; prediction
; sea ice
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Experiments
; Forecasting
; Arctic
; Global climate model
; polar
; predictability
; Sea ice concentration
; Sea-ice thickness
; Seasonal forecasts
; Surface temperatures
; Sea ice
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; concentration (composition)
; global climate
; ice thickness
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; Arctic Ocean
|
| 英文摘要: | Arctic sea ice thickness is thought to be an important predictor of Arctic sea ice extent. However, coupled seasonal forecast systems do not generally use sea ice thickness observations in their initialization and are therefore missing a potentially important source of additional skill. To investigate how large this source is, a set of ensemble potential predictability experiments with a global climate model, initialized with and without knowledge of the sea ice thickness initial state, have been run. These experiments show that accurate knowledge of the sea ice thickness field is crucially important for sea ice concentration and extent forecasts up to 8 months ahead, especially in summer. Perturbing sea ice thickness also has a significant impact on the forecast error in Arctic 2 m temperature a few months ahead. These results suggest that advancing capabilities to observe and assimilate sea ice thickness into coupled forecast systems could significantly increase skill. Key PointsSea ice thickness conditions have a large impact on summer sea ice forecastsNo difference in sea ice extent with or without thickness after 8 monthsThickness errors affect surface temperature more in winter months than summer ©2014. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84912060614&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061694&partnerID=40&md5=d3b42efea7402bf08be43cd3b42a3399
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6914
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Day J.J.,Hawkins E.,Tietsche S.. Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(21).
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