DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061416
论文题名: Two contrasting views of multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century
作者: Kravtsov S. ; Wyatt M.G. ; Curry J.A. ; Tsonis A.A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9742
EISSN: 1944-9473
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 19 起始页码: 6881
结束页码: 6888
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate variability
; forced vs. intrinsic signals
; global warming
; stadium wave
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Computer simulation
; Global warming
; Climate variability
; Global temperatures
; Intrinsic signal
; Multidecadal variability
; Multidecadal variations
; Objective filtering
; Surface temperatures
; Twentieth century
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; estimation method
; global climate
; simulation
; twentieth century
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: The bulk of our knowledge about causes of twentieth century climate change comes from simulations using numerical models. In particular, these models seemingly reproduce the observed nonuniform global warming, with periods of faster warming in 1910-1940 and 1970-2000, and a pause in between. However, closer inspection reveals some differences between the observations and model simulations. Here we show that observed multidecadal variations of surface climate exhibited a coherent global-scale signal characterized by a pair of patterns, one of which evolved in sync with multidecadal swings of the global temperature, and the other in quadrature with them. In contrast, model simulations are dominated by the stationary - single pattern - forced signal somewhat reminiscent of the observed "in-sync" pattern most pronounced in the Pacific. While simulating well the amplitude of the largest-scale - Pacific and hemispheric - multidecadal variability in surface temperature, the model underestimates variability in the North Atlantic and atmospheric indices. Key Points An objective filtering method identifies a global mode of climate variabilitySpace-time structure of climate in historic simulations reflects forced signalModeled multidecadal climate variations are too weak, especially in atmosphere ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84911167093&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061416&partnerID=40&md5=621cf3c600a2debcef5574d02c74d953
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7006
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Science Group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kravtsov S.,Wyatt M.G.,Curry J.A.,et al. Two contrasting views of multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(19).