globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1007/s00531-012-0803-2
论文题名:
Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record
作者: Dzierma Y.; Wehrmann H.
刊名: International Journal of Earth Sciences
出版年: 2014
卷: 103, 期:7
起始页码: 2029
结束页码: 2042
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Central American Volcanic Arc ; Eruption time series ; Kaplan–Meier estimator ; Probabilistic eruption forecasting ; Volcanic hazards
Scopus关键词: forecasting method ; geological record ; geostatistics ; hazard assessment ; island arc ; probability ; time series analysis ; volcanic eruption ; Cerro Negro Volcano ; Costa Rica ; El Salvador [Central America] ; Guanacaste ; Leon [Nicaragua] ; Nicaragua ; Rincon de la Vieja ; San Miguel
英文摘要: A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for seven historically active volcanoes along the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA), as a pivotal empirical contribution to multi-disciplinary volcanic hazards assessment. The eruption probabilities are determined with a Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival functions, and parametric time series models are applied to describe the historical eruption records. Aside from the volcanoes that are currently in a state of eruptive activity (Santa María, Fuego, and Arenal), the highest probabilities for eruptions of VEI ≥ 2 occur at Concepción and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua, which are likely to erupt to 70–85 % within the next 10 years. Poás and Irazú in Costa Rica show a medium to high eruption probability, followed by San Miguel (El Salvador), Rincón de la Vieja (Costa Rica), and Izalco (El Salvador; 24 % within the next 10 years). © 2012, Springer-Verlag.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84908537591&doi=10.1007%2fs00531-012-0803-2&partnerID=40&md5=b9c93c75e0d52c7c708130f718f72371
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/70331
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: SFB 574, University of Kiel, Otto-Hahn-Platz 1, Kiel, Germany; SFB 574, GEOMAR | Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Wischhofstr. 1-3, Kiel, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Dzierma Y.,Wehrmann H.. Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record[J]. International Journal of Earth Sciences,2014-01-01,103(7)
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