| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL061272
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| 论文题名: | Bayesian confidence intervals for the magnitude of the largest aftershock |
| 作者: | Shcherbakov R.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9782
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| EISSN: | 1944-9513
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:18 | | 起始页码: | 6380
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| 结束页码: | 6388
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | aftershock hazard
; aftershock statistics
; Bayesian predictive distribution
; extreme value statistics
; largest aftershock
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| Scopus关键词: | Hazards
; Aftershock sequence
; Bayesian Analysis
; Confidence interval
; Extreme value statistics
; Large earthquakes
; largest aftershock
; Predictive distributions
; Spatiotemporal distributions
; Earthquakes
; aftershock
; Bayesian analysis
; earthquake magnitude
; prediction
; spatiotemporal analysis
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| 英文摘要: | Aftershock sequences, which follow large earthquakes, last hundreds of days and are characterized by well-defined frequency-magnitude and spatio-temporal distributions. The largest aftershocks in a sequence constitute significant hazard and can inflict additional damage to infrastructure that is already affected by the main shock. Therefore, the estimation of the magnitude of a possible largest aftershock in a sequence is of high importance. In this work, a Bayesian predictive distribution and the corresponding confidence intervals for the magnitude of the largest expected aftershock in a sequence are derived using the framework of Bayesian analysis and extreme value statistics. The analysis is applied to 19 well-known aftershock sequences worldwide to construct retrospectively the confidence intervals for the magnitude of the subsequent largest aftershock by using the statistics of early aftershocks in the sequences. Key Points Constraining the magnitude of the largest aftershock after a damaging mainshockDerivation of Bayesian predictive distribution for large aftershock magnitudesApplication of the method to the past prominent aftershock sequences ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84911163872&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061272&partnerID=40&md5=654a34e3bff7a500fff37d8ef00704d2
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7046
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Department of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Shcherbakov R.. Bayesian confidence intervals for the magnitude of the largest aftershock[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(18).
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