DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL061019
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论文题名: | Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse |
作者: | Feng Q.Y.; Viebahn J.P.; Dijkstra H.A.
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刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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ISSN: | 0094-9832
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EISSN: | 1944-9563
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出版年: | 2014
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卷: | 41, 期:16 | 起始页码: | 6008
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结束页码: | 6014
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语种: | 英语
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Scopus关键词: | Complex networks
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; Deep-ocean circulation
; Early warning indicators
; Network reconstruction
; Optimal locations
; Short time series
; Spatial coherence
; Spatial resolution
; Oceanography
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; deep sea
; early warning system
; meridional circulation
; time series
; Atlantic Ocean
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英文摘要: | A future collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) has been identified as one of the most dangerous tipping points in the climate system. It is therefore crucial to develop early warning indicators for such a potential collapse based on relatively short time series. So far, attempts to use indicators based on critical slowdown have been marginally successful. Based on complex climate network reconstruction, we here present a promising new indicator for the MOC collapse that efficiently monitors spatial changes in deep ocean circulation. Through our analysis of the performance of this indicator, we formulate optimal locations of measurement of the MOC to provide early warning signals of a collapse. Our results imply that an increase in spatial resolution of the Atlantic MOC observations (i.e., at more sections) can improve early detection, because the spatial coherence in the deep ocean arising near the transition is better captured. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. |
URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84906302140&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061019&partnerID=40&md5=cd7437c2bde35434f4978449b8817d5f
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Citation statistics: |
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资源类型: | 期刊论文
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标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7096
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Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
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Recommended Citation: |
Feng Q.Y.,Viebahn J.P.,Dijkstra H.A.. Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(16).
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