| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL060527
|
| 论文题名: | Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries |
| 作者: | Maher N.; Gupta A.S.; England M.H.
|
| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
|
| ISSN: | 0094-9833
|
| EISSN: | 1944-9564
|
| 出版年: | 2014
|
| 卷: | 41, 期:16 | | 起始页码: | 5978
|
| 结束页码: | 5986
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| Scopus关键词: | Computer simulation
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Volcanoes
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Climate model simulations
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Equatorial Pacific
; Global surface air temperature
; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations
; Twentieth century
; Volcanic eruptions
; Climate models
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; greenhouse gas
; simulation
; twentieth century
; twenty first century
; volcanic eruption
|
| 英文摘要: | The latest generation of climate model simulations are used to investigate the occurrence of hiatus periods in global surface air temperature in the past and under two future warming scenarios. Hiatus periods are identified in three categories: (i) those due to volcanic eruptions, (ii) those associated with negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and (iii) those affected by anthropogenically released aerosols in the mid-twentieth century. The likelihood of future hiatus periods is found to be sensitive to the rate of change of anthropogenic forcing. Under high rates of greenhouse gas emissions there is little chance of a hiatus decade occurring beyond 2030, even in the event of a large volcanic eruption. We further demonstrate that most nonvolcanic hiatuses across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models are associated with enhanced cooling in the equatorial Pacific linked to the transition to a negative IPO phase. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84905999508&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060527&partnerID=40&md5=bb1211b1aa7b171ce78be081bd97e84b
|
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7097
|
| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, Australia
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Maher N.,Gupta A.S.,England M.H.. Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(16).
|
|
|