DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060973
论文题名: Changes in drought risk over the contiguous United States (1901-2012): The influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
作者: Kam J. ; Sheffield J. ; Wood E.F.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9843
EISSN: 1944-9574
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 16 起始页码: 5897
结束页码: 5903
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Bayesian networks
; Climatology
; Oceanography
; Production platforms
; Surface waters
; Uncertainty analysis
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Atmospheric variability
; Bayesian approaches
; Meteorological drought
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasting
; Southern oscillation
; Drought
; Bayesian analysis
; climate modeling
; drought
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; sea surface temperature
; uncertainty analysis
; United States
英文摘要: We assess uncertainties in the influence of sea surface temperatures on annual meteorological droughts over the contiguous U.S. within a Bayesian approach. Observational data for 1901-2012 indicate that a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) elevated annual drought risk over the southern U.S., such that the 4 year return period event becomes a 3 year event, while a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has a weak influence. In recent decades, the impacts of the negative phases of the PDO and ENSO on U.S. drought have weakened and shifted toward the southwestern U.S. These changes indicate an increasing of role of atmospheric variability on the U.S. drought overall with implications for long-term changes in drought and the potential for seasonal forecasting. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85008252999&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060973&partnerID=40&md5=fe1408869d32b427c0cadc5cfe75bb14
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7107
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kam J.,Sheffield J.,Wood E.F.. Changes in drought risk over the contiguous United States (1901-2012): The influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(16).