DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060382
论文题名: Runoff sensitivity to global mean temperature change in the CMIP5 Models
作者: Zhang X. ; Tang Q. ; Zhang X. ; Lettenmaier D.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9877
EISSN: 1944-9608
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 15 起始页码: 5492
结束页码: 5498
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; CMIP5
; global mean temperature
; runoff sensitivity
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Earth (planet)
; Global warming
; Runoff
; Climate system model
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Earth system model
; Emission scenario
; Global-mean temperature
; Land areas
; Runoff changes
; Climate models
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; flow modeling
; runoff
英文摘要: We estimated runoff sensitivities to global mean temperature change using climate experiments archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and compared with the similar CMIP3 results. We also evaluated differences in runoff sensitivity for the Earth System Models (ESMs) and Climate System Models (CSMs), which were separately identified in CMIP5 for the first time. Our results show that runoff sensitivity is relatively independent of emission scenarios in CMIP5, as in CMIP3 results. Global mean runoff would increase about 2.9% per °C of global warming in CMIP5, as contrasted with 1.9% in CMIP3. Although global runoff sensitivity patterns for CMIP5 and CMIP3 are roughly similar, CMIP5 suggests significant declines (increases) in runoff sensitivity over 17% (25%) of the global land area relative to CMIP3. Globally, the ESMs and CSMs have about the same model spread in runoff change projections. Key Points CMIP5 results imply global runoff increases by 2.9% per degree C global warming Earth System Models do not reduce model spread in runoff change projections Runoff sensitivities in CMIP5 models are consistent across RCP scenarios © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84905601790&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060382&partnerID=40&md5=ac9ce25f600fd908099eeca102e97b72
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7141
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang X.,Tang Q.,Zhang X.,et al. Runoff sensitivity to global mean temperature change in the CMIP5 Models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(15).