| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL061027
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| 论文题名: | Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic? |
| 作者: | Becker M.; Karpytchev M.; Lennartz-Sassinek S.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9879
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| EISSN: | 1944-9610
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:15 | | 起始页码: | 5571
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| 结束页码: | 5580
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | long-term persistence
; sea level change
; tide gauge
; trend estimation
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| Scopus关键词: | Earth sciences
; Geophysics
; Detection and attributions
; Detrended fluctuation analysis
; Internal variability
; Long-term correlations
; long-term persistence
; Sealevel change
; Tide gauges
; Trend estimation
; Global sea levels
; Human influences
; Sea level trends
; Statistical evidence
; Sea level
; correlation
; estimation method
; sea level change
; spatiotemporal analysis
; statistical analysis
; tidal modeling
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| 英文摘要: | Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde [], we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century. Key Points Long-term persistence impacts on sea level rise estimation Sea level change is clearly unnatural in two thirds of the longest tidal records Sea level change magnitude cannot be explained without human influence © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84905313104&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061027&partnerID=40&md5=596de1a45794bc16939d5928d81e3480
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7143
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | ESPACE-DEV UMR 228 UAG/IRD, Cayenne, French Guiana
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Becker M.,Karpytchev M.,Lennartz-Sassinek S.. Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(15).
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