globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060876
论文题名:
Predicting the cloud patterns of the Madden-Julian Oscillation through a low-order nonlinear stochastic model
作者: Chen N.; Majda A.J.; Giannakis D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9886
EISSN: 1944-9617
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期:15
起始页码: 5612
结束页码: 5619
语种: 英语
英文关键词: boreal winter MJO ; convective activity ; limits of predictability ; outgoing longwave radiation
Scopus关键词: Climatology ; Spectrum analysis ; Time series ; Forecasting ; Stochastic models ; Stochastic systems ; Time series analysis ; Wind effects ; Boreal winters ; Convective activity ; limits of predictability ; Madden-Julian oscillation ; Nonlinear interactions ; Nonlinear stochastic model ; Nonlinear time series ; Outgoing longwave radiation ; Forecast uncertainty ; Multiplicative noise ; Forecasting ; Climatology ; calibration ; cloud cover ; energy conservation ; longwave radiation ; Madden-Julian oscillation ; nonlinearity ; stochasticity ; time series ; weather forecasting
英文摘要: We assess the limits of predictability of the large-scale cloud patterns in the boreal winter Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as measured through outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) alone, a proxy for convective activity. A recent advanced nonlinear time series technique, nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis, is applied to the OLR data to define two spatial modes with high intermittency associated with the boreal winter MJO. A recent data-driven physics-constrained low-order stochastic modeling procedure is applied to these time series. The result is a four-dimensional nonlinear stochastic model for the two observed OLR variables and two hidden variables involving correlated multiplicative noise defined through energy-conserving nonlinear interaction. Systematic calibration and prediction experiments show the skillful prediction by these models for 40, 25, and 18 days in strong, moderate, and weak MJO winters, respectively. Furthermore, the ensemble spread is an accurate indicator of forecast uncertainty at long lead times. Key Points NLSA is applied to the OLR data to define two spatial modes of boreal winter MJO Physics-constrained low-order stochastic modeling is applied to the two modes Large-scale cloud patterns of the boreal winter MJO are skillfully predicted © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84905296153&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060876&partnerID=40&md5=bec593703332aeab8028d9e57d0261a9
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7150
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Mathematics, Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, New York University, New York, NY, United States

Recommended Citation:
Chen N.,Majda A.J.,Giannakis D.. Predicting the cloud patterns of the Madden-Julian Oscillation through a low-order nonlinear stochastic model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(15).
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