| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL060538
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| 论文题名: | Evidence for long-term memory in sea level |
| 作者: | Dangendorf S.; Rybski D.; Mudersbach C.; Müller A.; Kaufmann E.; Zorita E.; Jensen J.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9894
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| EISSN: | 1944-9625
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:15 | | 起始页码: | 5530
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| 结束页码: | 5537
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | detection and attribution
; long-term correlations
; persistence
; sea level rise
; tide gauges
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate change
; Tide gages
; Detection and attributions
; Long-term correlations
; persistence
; Sea level rise
; Tide gauges
; Anthropogenic changes
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Current estimates
; Long-term variability
; Multidecadal variability
; Natural variability
; Sea level
; climate change
; correlation
; ice cap
; sea level change
; tide gauge
; timescale
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| 英文摘要: | Detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change signals in sea level rise (SLR) has experienced considerable attention during the last decades. Here we provide evidence that superimposed on any possible anthropogenic trend there is a significant amount of natural decadal and multidecadal variability. Using a set of 60 centennial tide gauge records and an ocean reanalysis, we find that sea levels exhibit long-term correlations on time scales up to several decades that are independent of any systematic rise. A large fraction of this long-term variability is related to the steric component of sea level, but we also find long-term correlations in current estimates of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps. These findings suggest that (i) recent attempts to detect a significant acceleration in regional SLR might underestimate the impact of natural variability and (ii) any future regional SLR threshold might be exceeded earlier/later than from anthropogenic change alone. Key Points We find evidence for long-term memory in MSL records Long-term memory is found in the steric and mass components This natural variability produces climate internal multidecadal trends © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84905310727&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060538&partnerID=40&md5=9eda61f5f89fc6aa8e782daf7941b865
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7158
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen, Siegen, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Dangendorf S.,Rybski D.,Mudersbach C.,et al. Evidence for long-term memory in sea level[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(15).
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