DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060997
论文题名: Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles
作者: Breivik O. ; Aarnes O.J. ; Abdalla S. ; Bidlot J.-R. ; Janssen P.A.E.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9911
EISSN: 1944-9642
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 14 起始页码: 5122
结束页码: 5131
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ensemble prediction
; extreme value analysis
; marine wind
; return values
; significant wave height
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Water waves
; Wind effects
; Ensemble prediction
; Extreme value analysis
; Marine winds
; Return value
; Significant wave height
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; data set
; estimation method
; extreme event
; statistical analysis
; tropical cyclone
; weather forecasting
; wind velocity
英文摘要: Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240 h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from the model climate. Compared with ERA-Interim, a reanalysis, the ensemble yields higher return estimates for both wind speed and significant wave height. Confidence intervals are much tighter due to the large size of the data set. The period (9 years) is short enough to be considered stationary even with climate change. Furthermore, the ensemble is large enough for nonparametric 100 year return estimates to be made from order statistics. These direct return estimates compare well with extreme value estimates outside areas with tropical cyclones. Like any method employing modeled fields, it is sensitive to tail biases in the numerical model, but we find that the biases are moderate outside areas with tropical cyclones. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84904851643&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060997&partnerID=40&md5=ebd73678bc5566ec2306b862e3a16cc7
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7175
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Breivik O.,Aarnes O.J.,Abdalla S.,et al. Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(14).