DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061062
论文题名: Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century
作者: Kamae Y. ; Shiogama H. ; Watanabe M. ; Kimoto M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9930
EISSN: 1944-9661
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 14 起始页码: 5192
结束页码: 5199
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AMO
; climate hiatus
; hot summers
; PDO
Scopus关键词: Geophysics
; AMO
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; climate hiatus
; Global surface air temperature
; hot summers
; Interannual variation
; PDO
; Earth sciences
; air temperature
; annual variation
; climate forcing
; decadal variation
; Northern Hemisphere
; simulation
; summer
; twentieth century
; Atlantic Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Anomalously high summertime temperatures have occurred with increasing frequency since the late 20th century. It is not clear why hot summers are becoming more frequent despite the recent slowdown in the rise in global surface air temperature. To examine factors affecting the historical variation in the frequency of hot summers over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), we conducted three sets of ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model. The model accurately reproduced interannual variation and long-term increase in the occurrence of hot summers. Decadal variabilities in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans accounted for 43 ± 27% of the recent increase over the NH middle latitudes. In addition, direct influence of anthropogenic forcing also contributes to increasing the frequency since the late 20th century. The results suggest that the heat extremes can become more frequent in the coming decade even with the persistent slowdown in the global-mean surface warming. © 2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84906352243&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061062&partnerID=40&md5=c6b4d2a4fcfa650e6bf43380bdf7d47f
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7194
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Kamae Y.,Shiogama H.,Watanabe M.,et al. Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(14).