DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060815
论文题名: A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions
作者: Fučkar N.S. ; Volpi D. ; Guemas V. ; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9960
EISSN: 1944-9691
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 14 起始页码: 5200
结束页码: 5207
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bias correction method
; CGCM
; climate predictions
; large-scale SST indices
; NH sea ice extent
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Bias-correction methods
; CGCM
; Climate prediction
; large-scale SST indices
; Sea ice extent
; Climate models
; atmospheric correction
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; error analysis
; Northern Hemisphere
; sea ice
; sea surface temperature
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: Climate predictions initialized from an observationally based state (OBS) drift toward the state of the unconstrained model, which makes the use of a posteriori correction methods essential to disentangle the climate signal of interest from the model bias. We propose that applying a linear regression of the predictions and corresponding OBS on the OBS initial conditions (IC), and substituting the latter for the former, offers an effective method for bias correction. The impact of this new method is examined on monthly means of large-scale sea surface temperature indices and the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in EC-Earth2.3 predictions. This postprocessing adjustment through a linear regression on the averaged OBS over the first forecast month as a temporarily smoothed proxy for OBS IC shows a reduction of model error with respect to the two established bias correction methods. Improvements are seen for at least two seasons and for some variables up to 5 years. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84904784863&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060815&partnerID=40&md5=245c3847360abe6fa3df1e715a9f857d
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7224
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institut Català de Ciències Del Clima, Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Fučkar N.S.,Volpi D.,Guemas V.,et al. A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(14).