DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060826
论文题名: The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent
作者: Kapsch M.-L. ; Graversen R.G. ; Economou T. ; Tjernström M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9968
EISSN: 1944-9699
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 14 起始页码: 5288
结束页码: 5296
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic climate variability
; polar meteorology
; sea ice
; seasonal sea ice prediction
Scopus关键词: Regression analysis
; Sea ice
; Arctic climate
; Atmospheric conditions
; Atmospheric water vapor
; Correlation coefficient
; Feedback mechanisms
; Long-wave radiation
; Sea ice concentration
; Statistical regression model
; Weather forecasting
; atmosphere-ice-ocean system
; climate change
; climate feedback
; climate prediction
; marine atmosphere
; meteorology
; polar region
; sea ice
; spring (season)
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: Recent studies have shown that atmospheric processes in spring play an important role for the initiation of the summer ice melt and therefore may strongly influence the September sea ice concentration (SSIC). Here a simple statistical regression model based on only atmospheric spring parameters is applied in order to predict the SSIC over the major part of the Arctic Ocean. By using spring anomalies of downwelling longwave radiation or atmospheric water vapor as predictor variables, correlation coefficients between observed and predicted SSIC of up to 0.5 are found. These skills of seasonal SSIC predictions are similar to those obtained using more complex dynamical forecast systems, despite the fact that the simple model applied here takes neither information of the sea ice state, oceanic conditions nor feedback mechanisms during summer into account. The results indicate that a realistic representation of spring atmospheric conditions in the prediction system plays an important role for the predictive skills of a model system. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84904772922&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060826&partnerID=40&md5=a0d0d68e8c14ca09ab74aba3f59c6a6a
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7232
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Kapsch M.-L.,Graversen R.G.,Economou T.,et al. The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(14).