DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060300
论文题名: Recent increases in extreme temperature occurrence over land
作者: Weaver S.J. ; Kumar A. ; Chen M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10005
EISSN: 1944-9736
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 13 起始页码: 4669
结束页码: 4675
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme temperatures
; global warming
; mean temperature shift
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Meteorology
; Probability density function
; Temperature distribution
; Extreme temperature events
; Extreme temperatures
; Historical models
; Increasing temperatures
; Mean temperature
; Natural climate variabilities
; Probability density function (pdf)
; Temperature increase
; Carbon dioxide
英文摘要: Recently observed global and U.S. temperature increases are probed from the perspective of several hundred climate realizations afforded by the availability of reforecast climate model runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. The large number of seasonal realizations with the observed time-varying CO2 affords a unique opportunity to explore the role of greenhouse gas changes on 3 month seasonal mean temperature increases, and specifically, whether they are the result of a shift in the mean temperature distribution or an increase in its variability. It is found that significant positive shifts in the temperature probability density function (PDF) occur primarily as the result of the time-varying CO2 included in the historical model runs, although a contribution from natural climate variability modes cannot be categorically excluded. The temperature PDF comparison further indicates that the increasing global and U.S. temperatures over the last 30 years are predominantly the result of shifts in the mean temperature distribution and not increasing temperature variability. As such, the likelihood of increases in the occurrence of warm temperature extremes will likely continue to increase worldwide, leading to significant impacts on many socioeconomic sectors such as agriculture and public health. Key Points Anthropogenic related increase in land temperature over the last 30 years Temperature increases are the result of mean temperature shifts Increased occurrence of extreme temperature events ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84903800613&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060300&partnerID=40&md5=fe8e24e3ac873450516c4afe095a5feb
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7269
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Weaver S.J.,Kumar A.,Chen M.. Recent increases in extreme temperature occurrence over land[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(13).