DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059724
论文题名: Future snowfall in western and central Europe projected with a high-resolution regional climate model ensemble
作者: De Vries H. ; Lenderink G. ; Van Meijgaard E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10023
EISSN: 1944-9754
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 12 起始页码: 4294
结束页码: 4299
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Earth (planet)
; Snow
; Basic frequencies
; Future climate scenarios
; Global climate model
; Intensity change
; Intensity reduction
; Regional climate modeling
; Substantial reduction
; Winter precipitation
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; future prospect
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; snow cover
; Central Europe
; Western Europe
英文摘要: Snowfall frequency and intensity are influenced strongly by climate change. Here we separate the basic frequency change resulting from a gradually warming climate, from the intensity changes, by focusing on snowfall on days where the mean temperature is below freezing (Hellmann days). Using an ensemble of simulations, obtained with the high-resolution regional climate model KNMI-RACMO2 driven by the EC-EARTH global climate model and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios, we show that in addition to the strong decrease in the number of Hellmann days, also a substantial reduction in the mean Hellmann-day snowfall can be expected over large parts of western and central Europe. Moreover, seasonal snowfall extremes display trends that are comparable or even larger. Projected intensity reductions are locally as large as -30% per degree warming, thus being in sharp contrast to mean winter precipitation, which increases in most future climate scenarios. Exceptions are the high Alps and parts of Scandinavia, which may see an increase of up to +10% per degree warming. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84907919476&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059724&partnerID=40&md5=d029bdba9c19ecda327bfb30ec40e268
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7287
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Global Climate Division, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
De Vries H.,Lenderink G.,Van Meijgaard E.. Future snowfall in western and central Europe projected with a high-resolution regional climate model ensemble[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(12).