DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059586
论文题名: Usefulness of ensemble forecasts from NCEP climate forecast system in sub-seasonal to intra-annual forecasting
作者: Kumar S. ; Dirmeyer P.A. ; Kinter III J.L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10028
EISSN: 1944-9759
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 10 起始页码: 3586
结束页码: 3593
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CFSv2
; ensemble forecast
; ENSO forecast
; monthly forecast
; seasonal forecast
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; CFSv2
; Ensemble forecasts
; Ensemble standard
; ENSO forecast
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Pre-processing step
; Randomly distributed
; Seasonal forecasts
; Forecasting
; annual variation
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: Typically, sub-seasonal to intra-annual climate forecasts are based on ensemble mean (EM) predictions. The EM prediction provides only a part of the information available from the ensemble forecast. Here we test the null hypothesis that the observations are randomly distributed about the EM predictions using a new metric that quantifies the distance between the EM predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the observations represented by CFSv2 Reanalysis. The null hypothesis cannot be rejected in this study. Hence, we argue that the higher order statistics such as ensemble standard deviation are also needed to describe the forecast. We also show that removal of systematic errors that are a function of the forecast initialization month and lead time is a necessary pre-processing step. Finally, we show that CFSv2 provides useful ensemble climate forecasts from 0 to 9month lead time in several regions. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901382313&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059586&partnerID=40&md5=2ef9be45d3660e65e36923c649d63779
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7292
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kumar S.,Dirmeyer P.A.,Kinter III J.L.. Usefulness of ensemble forecasts from NCEP climate forecast system in sub-seasonal to intra-annual forecasting[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(10).