| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL060046
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| 论文题名: | The impact of forcing efficacy on the equilibrium climate sensitivity |
| 作者: | Kummer J.R.; Dessler A.E.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-10046
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| EISSN: | 1944-9777
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:10 | | 起始页码: | 3565
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| 结束页码: | 3568
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | equilibrium climate sensitivity
; forcing
; forcing efficacy
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| Scopus关键词: | Aerosols
; Carbon dioxide
; Ozone
; Climate sensitivity
; forcing
; forcing efficacy
; Interannual variability
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Paleoclimates
; Per unit
; Twentieth century
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate forcing
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; ozone
; twentieth century
; warming
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| 英文摘要: | Estimates of the Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from twentieth century observations predict a lower ECS than estimates from climate models, paleoclimate data, and interannual variability. Here we show that estimates of ECS from the twentieth century observations are sensitive to the assumed efficacy of aerosol and ozone forcing (efficacy for a forcer is the amount of warming per unit global average forcing divided by the warming per unit forcing from CO2). Previous estimates of ECS based on the twentieth century observations have assumed that the efficacy is unity, which in our study yields an ECS of 2.3 K (5%-95% confidence range of 1.6-4.1 K), near the bottom of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's likely range of 1.5-4.5 K. Increasing the aerosol and ozone efficacy to 1.33 increases the ECS to 3.0 K (1.9-6.8 K), a value in excellent agreement with other estimates. Forcing efficacy therefore provides a way to bridge the gap between the different estimates of ECS. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84902246210&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060046&partnerID=40&md5=34f72b7a95a3f1fa372e5cc9fb0cbbad
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7310
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kummer J.R.,Dessler A.E.. The impact of forcing efficacy on the equilibrium climate sensitivity[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(10).
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