| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL060184
|
| 论文题名: | Isolating the anthropogenic component of Arctic warming |
| 作者: | Chylek P.; Hengartner N.; Lesins G.; Klett J.D.; Humlum O.; Wyatt M.; Dubey M.K.
|
| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
|
| ISSN: | 0094-10065
|
| EISSN: | 1944-9796
|
| 出版年: | 2014
|
| 卷: | 41, 期:10 | | 起始页码: | 3569
|
| 结束页码: | 3576
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | anthropogenic
; Arctic warming
; climate change
|
| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric radiation
; Greenhouse gases
; anthropogenic
; Anthropogenic cause
; Anthropogenic components
; Arctic surface air temperature
; Arctic warming
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Structural equation modeling
; Structural modeling
; Climate change
; air temperature
; anthropogenic effect
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; climate change
; climate forcing
; greenhouse gas
; marine atmosphere
; nature-society relations
; radiative forcing
; warming
; Arctic Ocean
|
| 英文摘要: | Structural equation modeling is used in statistical applications as both confirmatory and exploratory modeling to test models and to suggest the most plausible explanation for a relationship between the independent and the dependent variables. Although structural analysis cannot prove causation, it can suggest the most plausible set of factors that influence the observed variable. We apply structural model analysis to the annual mean Arctic surface air temperature from 1900 to 2012 to find the most effective set of predictors and to isolate the anthropogenic component of the recent Arctic warming by subtracting the effects of natural forcing and variability from the observed temperature. We find that anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols radiative forcing and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation internal mode dominate Arctic temperature variability. Our structural model analysis of observational data suggests that about half of the recent Arctic warming of 0.64K/decade may have anthropogenic causes.© 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901084295&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060184&partnerID=40&md5=69305b9f1abdd29c633c2909abe6deba
|
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7329
|
| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Space and Remote Sensing, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Chylek P.,Hengartner N.,Lesins G.,et al. Isolating the anthropogenic component of Arctic warming[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(10).
|
|
|